Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 190.790276 233.778799 287.937826 362.670608 465.585361 6.062507e+02 8.204460e+02
2025-02-16 142.784784 191.580823 261.528451 374.099318 561.480961 8.844138e+02 1.549094e+03
2025-02-23 116.025345 165.408141 242.784648 382.205551 651.946258 1.221430e+03 2.809452e+03
2025-03-02 95.972954 142.593355 220.315272 372.392848 702.986341 1.531136e+03 4.627757e+03
2025-03-09 81.903503 125.641677 202.203961 362.417331 747.180163 1.875233e+03 7.622642e+03
2025-03-16 70.805259 111.302115 184.919992 347.434534 771.344097 2.200058e+03 1.218062e+04
2025-03-23 67.417678 109.634815 190.577224 383.696070 954.923728 3.378363e+03 3.560082e+04
2025-03-30 61.701565 102.641495 184.021271 389.020209 1053.996153 4.449145e+03 9.468610e+04
2025-04-06 57.835474 98.474076 182.338607 406.170887 1210.658005 6.356583e+03 4.862776e+05
2025-04-13 52.833794 91.325340 172.733114 398.588979 1270.442348 7.889513e+03 3.330051e+06
2025-04-20 51.470087 91.253469 178.978200 439.341355 1583.970659 1.390889e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 49.822730 90.322887 183.006767 475.633230 1935.098362 2.535124e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.656870 88.173528 184.135110 505.453045 2324.779811 4.968651e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.196570 85.054378 182.230240 524.581530 2700.885844 1.006541e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 42.765081 81.670277 178.953670 537.591195 3078.858925 2.231987e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 39.683823 76.416903 169.598161 522.229315 3189.072156 3.813146e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.943371 71.666715 160.888847 506.630713 3284.571317 6.930559e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.276464 66.821847 151.171353 483.313144 3266.187173 1.109627e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 34.023301 67.706786 158.226397 540.010516 4403.694844 1.990723e+08 NaN
2025-06-22 32.534723 65.408680 155.370522 548.408430 4958.609692 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 31.569430 64.302477 155.998896 575.584785 6007.554110 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.878635 61.197682 149.815712 563.547499 6279.426717 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.737736 62.034993 156.510728 628.672858 8878.176466 NaN NaN